Putin & The Art Of Being One Step Ahead
It is now a matter of public record that two of Trump's closest former aides, Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort, were in the employ of Russia and Turkey. The American media is seeking viable evidence of any political and financial collusion between the Trump organization and these hostile foreign nations. The Republican Party's position appears to be that if there is no evidence (a paper or digital trail) linking Trump to the Russians and Turks, then Trump is off the hook and should merrily carry on as President.
This focus on collusion, money, and profit is entirely misguided. Putin, a former KGB intelligence officer, values knowledge above all other currencies. Manafort and Flynn have already provided their paymasters with extensive knowledge of Trump’s strategic goals and long-term geopolitical objectives, as well as essential insights into Trump’s personality, drive, ego, tastes, inclinations, preferences, psychological reflexes, and mental strengths and weaknesses.
Typically, Presidents are closer to their National Security Advisors than their spouses; the wives of Presidents don’t have security clearances. Presidents cannot discuss certain key matters with their spouses, such as the potential assassination of Bin Laden. The daily challenges and pressures of international politics require the President to remain in constant contact with his National Security Advisor.
To have offered Flynn the top job, Trump must have felt completely secure that Flynn’s view of the world perfectly mirrored his own. This meant the two men would have to believe themselves to be completely in sync on their most cherished political, social, and philosophical positions. It is inconceivable that President Trump would work with a man whose views did not align perfectly with his own.
How do you know you’re in sync with someone? You know it because you've had plenty of time to open up to them, talked frankly about what troubles your heart and worries your mind, and found a sympathetic echo of your hopes and expectations in the man sitting across the table from you. The two of you are partners in the fullest expression of the word, and you're both aware your fates are tied together. You stand or fall together, demanding utmost loyalty from each other.
Flynn's job title said it all. He was Trump’s closest partner on matters of American and global security. Flynn was fully aware of Trump's domestic, regional, and global security objectives for both his first and second term. Now that Flynn has registered himself as a foreign agent, the US Intelligence Services’ greatest fear, rightly or wrongly, is that Flynn’s intimate knowledge of the current President of the United States was ultimately up for sale through Turkey to the highest bidder, Vladimir Putin.
The Intelligence Services will assume the worst. They will operate from the assumption that Putin already knows what territorial incursions and energy disputes Trump is willing to take a stand against, and what challenges Trump will let pass. Their conclusion will be that because Putin effectively has Trump in his back pocket, American historical superiority over Russia is at risk.
If this seems a strong statement, consider how the Bay of Pigs might have turned out differently if the Russians had been advised by one of JFK’s top advisors. How would knowing JFK's reaction to stress, his sleep requirements, his tolerance for loss of face, and the importance of being perceived as a winner have altered the course of history? Similarly, how different would the Middle East have been if Saddam had understood Bush’s emotional and psychological stance towards him? How many lives would have been saved in Iraq if the opposition forces had not mistakenly believed Obama would stand by his “Red Line” comment and commit a large contingent of American forces to a major ground offensive?
Why is anyone focusing on collusion? This is about data collection and tiny, but infinitely precious, nuggets of insight that provide one national leader with a strategic advantage over another. What does it mean if the media finds evidence of a sizable contract between the Trump organization and a Russian enterprise? The value of that contract, monetarily and politically, however damaging, is nothing compared to the merit of the carefully gleaned insight Putin already possesses into the workings of President Trump’s brain. Putin’s knowledge serves only one purpose: it makes Trump predictable.
In any potential world crisis, a predictable leader of the free world is of no value to anyone.